Pan Americans Irvine Venue / Photo by John Cooper
The 2015 Pan is less than a week away and after registration closed we can take a look on what the four days of action at the Bren Events Center have in store for us.
In a fun exercise of foresight, we will try to predict how each division of the black belt will play out based on our own observation of the competition landscape in the recent months.
To make things even more exciting, we’ll also compare with last year’s result and analyze the chances of a repetition in 2015.
Here we go.
Male black belt
Roosterweight
Cio Terra vs. Bruno Malfacine
After being absent in 2014, the owners of the category are back. Bruno Malfacine and Caio Terra put their names down and should repeat the common sight of the two battling for gold in the final.
2014 final: João Pedro Rodrigues (champion) vs. Milton Bastos
Most probable final in 2015: Bruno Malfacine vs. Caio Terra
Light-featherweight
One year later, the landscape of the division seems the same. Brothers João and Paulo Miyao are even more experienced and dangerous, so it is hard to imagine another outcome than the two in the final.
2014 final: João Miyao vs. Paulo Miyao (champion)
Most probable final in 2015: João Miyao vs. Paulo Miyao
Featherweight
(UPDATED 3/09) Gianni Grippo is back to try his first gold medal as a black belt at the Pan. Mario Reis, the other finalist of 2014, went up to lightweight. With that, Osvaldo Moizinho, Kim Terra and Vitor Paschoal have the best chances to make to the final too.
2014 final: Mario Reis vs. Gianni Grippo (champion)
Most probable final in 2015: Osvaldo Moizinho vs. Gianni Grippo
Lightweight
JT Torres
Langhi and Lepri, last year’s finalists, are not on the list. With that, the division is wide open to many great names registered. JT Torres, AJ Agazarm, Rodrigo Freitas, Rodrigo Caporal, newcomer Michael Liera top the list of favorites. It will be a sight to see regardless of the outcome.
2014 final: Michael Langhi vs. Lucas Lepri (champion)
Most probable final in 2015: JT Torres vs. AJ Agazarm
Middleweight
Lo vs. Otavio
As the roosterweight, in the middleweight two names stand out of the crowd. Leandro Lo and Otavio Sousa were in the final in 2014 and should be again in 2015. Vitor Oliveira and Victor Estima are the two fighters with the most chances to intrude in the final match.
2014 final: Leandro Lo (champion) vs. Otavio Sousa
Most probable final in 2015: Leandro Lo vs. Otavio Sousa
Medium-heavy
Keenan Cornelius
(Updated 3/09) Again, last year’s finalists Guto Campos and Keenan Cornelius are in and should be big contenders for the final. Nevertheless, there are other great talents in the mix, such as Murilo Santana, Renato Cardoso, Inacio Neto and Abmar Barbosa.
2014 final: Guto Campos (champion) vs. Keenan Cornelius
Most probable final in 2015: Keenan Cornelius vs. Guto Campos
Heavyweight
Lucas Leite is on the list, but Yuri Simões went up to super-heavy. With that, the final is wide open for any takers and there’s no shortage of candidates. Felipe Bueno, Alexandro Ceconi, Marcelo Mafra, Lucas Rocha, and Tim Spriggs are the most notable.
2014 final: Lucas Leite vs. Yuri Simões (champion)
Most probable final in 2015: Lucas Leite vs. Tim Spriggs
Super-heavyweight
Bernardo Faria
(Updated 3/09) Another tough division to call. Bernardo Faria should always be recognized as one of the top contenders. the other finalist of 2014, Luiz Panza, went up to the ultra-heavy. Yuri Simões has been displaying recently a drive and a technical performance that puts him right up there with the two-time world champion from Alliance. Of course we cannot count out talents like Leonardo Nogueira and Erberth Santos.
2014 final: Bernardo Faria vs. Luiz Panza (champion)
Most probable final in 2015: Yuri Simões vs. Bernardo Faria
Ultra-heavyweight
Luiz Panza
(Updated 3/09) André Galvão is out, but Alex Trans is in. João Gabriel Rocha is back after over one year. Abraham Marte, Gustavo Dias, James Puopolo and Luiz Panza are all names to be considered. Very tough division to call.
2014 final: André Galvão (champion) vs. Alex Trans
Most probable final in 2015: Abraham Marte vs. Luiz Panza
Open class
Depends on who signs in to compete.
2014 final: André Galvão (champion) vs. Leandro Lo
Most probable final in 205: ?
Female black belt
Roosterweight
Sofia Amarante and Marcela Lawton are the only two registered.
2014 final: none
2015 final: Sofia Amarante vs. Marcela Lawton
Light-featherweight
Michelle Nicolini
Michelle Nicolini is the favorite, but Gezary Bandeira and Ariadne Oliveira should make a run for the gold too.
2014 final: Andrea Encarnacion (champion) vs. Nyjah Easton
Most probable final in 2015: Michelle Nicolini vs. Ariadne Oliveira
Featherweight
Like in 2014, Mackenzie Dern and Tammi Musumeci should be in the final.
2014 final: Mackenzie Dern vs. Tammi Musumeci (champion)
Most probable final in 2015: Mackenzie Dern vs. Tammi Musumeci
Lightweight
Beatriz Mesquita
Bia Mesquita and Fabiana Borges are back at it, but Angelica Galvão is a newcomer that should cause a lot of trouble.
2014 final: Bia Mesquita (champion) vs. Fabiana Borges
Most probable final in 2015: Bia Mesquita vs. Angelica Galvão
Middleweight
Luiza Monteiro
Luiza Monteiro and Megan Nevill registered once again, but Monique Elias has all the tools to be in the final.
2014 final: Luiza Monteiro (champion) vs. Megan Nevill
Most probable final in 2015: Luiza Monteiro vs. Monique Elias
Medium-heavyweight
Again, only two athletes registered.
2014 final: Talita Nogueira (champion) vs. Kay Stephenson
2015 final: Andressa Correa vs. Ana Laura Cordeiro
Heavyweight
Only two also.
2014 final: Tammy Griego (champion) vs. Andressa Correa
2015 final: Dominika Obelenyte vs. Tammy Griego
Super-heavyweight
Gabi Garcia
Gabi is alone in the division.
2014 final: none
2015 final: none
Open class
As in the male division, depends on who signs in.
2014 final: Bia Mesquita (champion) vs. Andressa Correa
Most probable final in 2015: ?
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